Federal Bid Readiness Calculator
Price public-sector bids with USAspending award context, bid-prep cost, compliance time, bonding, payment lag, financing carry, and win-probability screening.
Official source default
$76,549,716,793 state awards
Feed target: usaspending-api via /api/public-data-feeds/signals
Raise price or scope
- USAspending market intensityState award dollars divided by a broad federal-spend baseline, capped at 3%
- 1.9%
- Bid prep cost
- $950
- Compliance cost
- $880
- Bonding / insurance allowance
- $2,000
- Payment carry cost
- $1,346
- Public-sector reserve
- $2,392
- Total readiness reserve
- $7,568
- Recommended bid price
- $136,901
- Current bid gap
- $11,901
- Current bid surplus
- $0
- Margin at current bid
- 21.1%
- Break-even win probabilityBid prep cost divided by current-bid profit after reserves
- 3.6%
- Expected value at current bid
- $5,895
- Gross profit at recommended price
- $38,332
- Signal source
- Editable
This estimate is based on national average costs and may vary by region, project specifics, and market conditions. Use as a starting point for your bids.
Public-sector bids need a different reserve than residential work
A public-sector job can look profitable on labor and materials while still underpricing the real pursuit cost. Bid prep, compliance paperwork, bonding, insurance allocation, slower payment, and public-market uncertainty all need to be recovered before margin is calculated.
This calculator uses the ProJobCalc public signal endpoint as a default source for state federal award dollars. The USAspending number becomes a market-intensity reserve, while the rest of the inputs model your actual job cost and pursuit economics.
A worked example
A $125,000 public-sector bid with $91,000 of direct cost, a 28% target margin, 10 hours of bid prep, 8 compliance hours, 1.6% bonding and insurance, and a 45-day payment lag needs about $7,568 of readiness reserve before margin.
At the current price, that bid is short by roughly $11,901. If the expected win probability is 25%, the pursuit still has positive expected value, but the price should be raised or the scope tightened before the proposal goes out.
How to use the number
Treat the recommended bid as a pre-proposal checkpoint. If the current bid gap is large, either raise the price, remove scope, negotiate payment terms, or skip the opportunity. If expected value is negative, the bid may be a sales distraction even if the project looks good on paper.
Frequently asked questions
Does USAspending tell me whether I should bid a specific job?
No. USAspending gives official market context, not a bid decision. Use it as a public-sector demand signal, then decide with your own scope, margin, payment terms, bonding requirements, and win probability.
Why include pursuit cost if it is not part of the job cost?
Federal and public-sector bids can take estimating, compliance, documentation, and follow-up time before you know whether you won. If the chance of winning is low, that pursuit cost needs to be justified by the expected profit.
Should bonding, insurance, and payment lag be separate proposal lines?
Usually they stay inside the price, not as customer-facing lines. The point is to make sure the bid recovers the real cost of compliance, carry, and risk before target margin is calculated.
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